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2012 predictions!


I’ve really enjoyed reading other people’s predictions especially Andrew Page’s over at Scottish Liberal. I thought I’d throw some of my own together.

1. All 3 UK party leaders will stay put as will all 4 Scottish party leaders. I doubt the Tories will chuck a PM, Labour don’t get rid of their leaders and nobody with enough guts to really challenge Ed as leader. Nick has a lot of loyalty from the LibDems. As for the Scottish leaders, 3 of them are brand new and the SNP aren’t going to replace the guy who was the first ever leader of a single party majority government in Scotland.

2. I expect a reshuffle in either May or November. November being exactly halfway through the parliament. If Hammond is moved from defence, I’d expect a call up to go to Rory Stewart. I doubt defence would go to a LibDem and Rory Stewart is I think a very thoughtful and intelligent guy who could easily handle running defence. I would also expect Lansley may well be moved from the health brief considering the rows over the NHS reforms. On the LibDem side, i think Cable could go. David Laws could be brought into fill the Business role. Huhne may be forced to leave the Cabinet due to the speeding allegations.

3. Osborne will continued to be close-minded and increasingly on the defensive as the economy continues to stagnate.

4. LibDems will consistently poll between 10-15%. Conservatives vote will hold up, which they will use to defend the government’s actions. Labour’s vote share will continue to stagnate, slowly decline as the public will continue to see that Ed isn’t PM material, has no credible alternative and is ineffective at challenging the government.

5. Sarkozy will be defeated in the French Presidential elections.

6. Obama will defeat Newt Gingrich.

7. Assad will go. There will continue to be unrest in the Arab countries.

8. The Euro will stay together. It will still be in a mess this time next year. No politician is brave enough to step up and lead the Euro out of its current predicament. This might change as a result of the French presidential election.

9. David Cameron will continue to annoy and frustrate both his European colleagues and his own backbenchers. Nick Clegg will continue to run around talking to leaders of the european countries trying to clean up the mess that Cameron makes.

10. The unionist parties will continue with their current strategy of “please, please don’t leave us” and use their tired 304 year-old economic argument in order to try and save the union. By the end, there will be a clear stench of desperation coming from Westminster. Noticeable for all to see.

So they are my predictions for 2012. We’ll see how 2012 pans out.

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  1. January 1, 2012 at 21:59

    A lot of this I would probably agree with. Not entirely convinced that Gingrich will win the Republican nomination or that Obama will defeat whoever does, but we can live in hope!

    There is no doubt Assad will go. The question is what will replace him, and what destruction will he leave in his wake.

    I don’t know if Cable should go; I retain a lot of respect for him but I understand why you feel the way you do. I’m not sure I’d want David Laws being an economic spokesperson for our party, although I’d certainly welcome him back into the cabinet. Rory Stewart would be a huge asset, another liberal Conservative.

    I think you’ve hit the nail on the head with the Westminster “desperation”. It is already obvious for anyone who cares to look, and will become more so as time progresses. The “unionist” parties must change their arguments or the strategy – or ideally both.

    Thanks for the mention. Hope you have a great 2012 and that your blog gains the respect and recognition it certainly merits.

  1. January 1, 2012 at 04:31
  2. January 2, 2012 at 02:32

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